PREDICTING
THE FUTURE
"As humans, we make our own independent decisions. Collectively, we are remarkably predictable."
Andrew Prendergast, Chief Scientist of VizDynamics

“We're already halfway towards a world where algorithms run nearly everything. As their power intensifies, wealth will concentrate towards them. They will ensure the 1% - 99% divide gets larger. If you're not part of the class attached to algorithms, then you will struggle. The reason why there is no popular outrage about Wall Street being run by algorithms is because most people don't yet know or understand it.”

Prof. Viktor Mayer-Schönberger
Oxford  Internet Institute

Macro-Seasonal Product Demand
Welcome to a clear view of when and why.

Want to know when and why prospects are seeking your products? We use the same high powered mathematics behind robot cars to analyse up to 10 years of your actuals alongside external benchmark Data to reveal hidden gems of predictive knowledge.

Our macro insights + predictions are frequently useful for up to 18 months and relevant to all parts of your business.

Challenge and validate your existing assumptions, then work with us to interpret new ones.

Know when exogenous effects are affecting sales, smooth your financing with plenty of time to spare, lock in volume contracts well ahead of schedule, know when to dial back fixed costs sooner, and quantify the seasonal peaks and lags between desire, decision and purchase for each and every product or service you sell.

Decision Guidance
Increase the chance of getting what you want.

Looking to improve performance in sales, pricing, risk, and asset management? You cannot control your luck, but we can help you use the same techniques as the US military to improve the quality of your decision making.

Decision guidance starts with capturing your existing knowledge in a Bayesian belief network. By interviewing stakeholders using group-think techniques, we can quickly build a Bayesian A.I. that captures your team’s collective judgement.

Once the base model is built, we add levers to capture your risk appetite, use it to quantify what you don’t know, then assess the value of new Data gathering exercises that might improve the model. We use deep learning techniques to train sections of the model where Big Data is at hand and other techniques where only aggregate or mid-Data is around.

Then ask the model any question within it's field of view. Use it to repeatedly make better choices that maximise your long run expected returns. Turn down the risk levers and accelerate sales, turn them up and accelerate profits.  Increase it's scope by combining it with other Bayesian models. Negotiate deals with clarity of knowledge and know when you're spending too much or making too little.

Advertising Models + Evaluation
Feel confident you are spending the right half.

Looking to exploit the knowledge in your existing advertising datasets? We can extract valuations from months or even years of aggregate or event level campaign Data then help you configure your measurement + optimisation strategy to improve the value of the information you collect and the quality of the predictions you make from it.

We can help you to compare your current media mix and bidding models against a variety of standard ones to find the optimisation and Data capture technique that best fits your products and your constraints.

Over a decade of this comparing and hand tuning of models using the scientific method has taught us a lot about the best ways to predict advertising performance.

For example, we know how many weeks of Data is required before you can make reliable predictions, and how long that Data is useful for. We also know how smoothing together just the right amount of information from a plurality of independent media buys will give you a significant edge over black box platform based solutions (and have some good baseline models to compare against there).

Search or display, tv radio or press - as long as you have conversion Data and can do ratio analysis, then we can tune it.

"Forty percent of non-users expect to adopt big data in the next two years, led by Asia-Pacific respondents"
Big Data Market Analytics Study, Dresner LLC 2017 (C/o Microstrategy)